Understanding Substitution: How Our Minds Take Shortcuts in Decision-Making

In Thinking, Fast and Slow (https://amzn.to/3UocTpu), psychologist Daniel Kahneman introduces the concept of “substitution,” where we replace complex questions with simpler ones. This mental shortcut saves time and effort but can cloud judgment and lead to biased decisions. Let’s explore how substitution plays out in real-life scenarios—from politics to IT.

Substitution in Politics: The Poll Question

Imagine being asked to evaluate a political candidate’s competence on specific issues. This requires a nuanced analysis of policies, past performance, and broader political implications—often challenging even for experts. Instead, people often unknowingly answer an easier question: “Do I like this candidate?” This substitution leads voters to make decisions based on personality or likability rather than policy substance, skewing polls and potentially affecting election outcomes.

For example, a charismatic but inexperienced candidate may gain favor because they are well-liked, while a more qualified but less personable candidate could be overlooked. By substituting complex questions with simpler ones, voters end up using emotional judgments rather than objective assessments to make political decisions.

Substitution in the professional life: Framework Decisions

Imagine you are working in the software industry. Your job is to produce software by developing it from scratch or by using already existing frameworks to speed up your delivery. The substitution can happen subtly yet with significant consequences. Imagine your team debating two software frameworks for a critical project. Ideally, the team would evaluate factors like long-term scalability, security, and compatibility with other systems. However, faced with the complexity of comparing these frameworks in detail, the team leader might unconsciously replace the question of “Which is the best framework for our needs?” with a simpler one: “Which framework is the team most familiar with?”

This substitution bypasses rigorous analysis in favor of an easier metric: familiarity. While this approach might save time, it can lead to a suboptimal choice. The team may end up choosing a framework based on comfort and ease, ignoring factors that could influence the project’s success in the long run, like scalability or community support. This example illustrates how substitution can steer tech decisions in a biased direction, potentially resulting in higher costs and technical debt over time.

Why Do We Rely on Substitution?

Substitution is part of our brain’s System 1 thinking—fast, automatic, and often emotional. Complex assessments require energy, so the brain quickly swaps in a simpler, easier-to-process question. Though it’s efficient, this approach often prioritizes speed over accuracy, leading to errors in critical areas like business, finance, and personal decisions.

Overcoming Substitution

To counter substitution, we can train ourselves to pause and actively engage in System 2 thinking—slow, deliberate, and logical. For example:

• In politics, we can strive to evaluate candidates’ policies rather than personal impressions.
• In professional choices, leaders can set criteria that prioritize project requirements and encourage team members to step back from familiar choices.

Understanding substitution helps us recognize our brain’s tendency to take shortcuts, enabling better decisions in every area of life. Whether voting in elections or making strategic choices in tech, awareness is the first step toward intentional, well-informed decisions.

 

The idea of substitution stuck with me thanks to the notes I took while reading the book Thinking, Fast and Slow (https://amzn.to/3UocTpu) by psychologist Daniel Kahneman. For that I used the reading companion Books and Notes App.

Download the app today and transform the way you read and take notes. Happy reading!

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